Shower Thoughts

"functionoverfashion" (functionoverfashion) 03/26/2020 at 07:41 • Filed to: None

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For your time, I googled “Alchemist Van” figuring they must have some kitted-out Sprinter van or something, and, well... this came up:

I have... some questions.

1. Is this whole debacle going to spell the end of the mircobrewery bubble? I mean, some places have been basically printing money for so long that they can probably weather this storm, e.g. Alchemist in Vermont. But then when the storm passes, who’s going to be buying $20 4-packs? Or even a $10 4-pack of 16's because that’s still pretty expensive, compared to a pretty decent $13 12-pack of Sierra Nevada, which is kind of my Gold Standard for Good Beer That’s Not More Expensive Per Unit Than Scotch.

I’m sure a lot of breweries won’t make it through for the same reasons a lot of thin-margin entrepreneurial businesses will be crushed under the weight of their loans and rent without the cushion of, you know, income. But will this be a Big Deal in the exploding beer industry? Or just a way for the market to separate The Best from The Rest? As with anything, the truth probably lies in the middle. A year from now, my local beer place will still have coolers full of expensive beer. But I suspect there will be less variety.

2. I hesitate to even bring this up because it always stirs up so much vitriol among a group otherwise known for, shall we say, spirited driving. But anyway, someone should really do a Cannonball Run RIGHT NOW. I mean, the combination of highway infrastructure, cancelled or on-hold construction projects, and absolute decimation of traffic density, is a set of conditions that we hope never to see again, and couldn’t have even dreamed of just a few weeks ago. But really.

I kinda don’t think we’re gonna see this anymore

pip bip - choose Corrour > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:09

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i reckon you’re right

some breweries will survive, some won’t

keep your fingers crossed the ones you want to survive actually do.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:10

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You are thinking about beer in the shower before breakfast? That some devotion to the cause. Therefore, I think you and your cohort will be fine...

functionoverfashion > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media 03/26/2020 at 08:12

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lol well I ate before I showered, is that better? 

shop-teacher > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:19

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That’s an interesting use of a Cutlass front end.

I reckon you're right on both counts.

functionoverfashion > pip bip - choose Corrour 03/26/2020 at 08:20

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I guess my thought was driven by my utter shock every time I go into a store and see a huge supply of expensive microbrews, seemingly a new one every week, for insane prices. I mean, I buy this stuff sometimes, but I keep thinking, “something has to give” - and here we are. 

functionoverfashion > shop-teacher 03/26/2020 at 08:21

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And look at those intakes, and rear tires...

Tekamul > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:25

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Microbreweries will come back up. It will take time, but the good ones will return, and new ones will be born.

The Alchemist, specifically, has been stuffing cash into mattresses for years.  They’ll be around.  They may produce lower priced options though, in the short term.

shop-teacher > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:25

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Iiiiiiiinteresting ....

Oh, before I pop it on eBay, are you still interested in that Lego Mindstorms kit?

Snuze: Needs another Swede > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:34

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For what it’s worth I think the beer thing was overdue for a shakeout anyways, I’m surprised it has lasted as long as it has. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE beer, like, alot. But I’ve been kind of amazed that the customer demand exists to support so many new breweries. I’ve seen the rise and fall of several drinking trends - I remember when Vodka was “the thing” and there were dozens of new brands popping up. That subsided and whisky got big, but that seems to have been cooling off already. Craft b eer has been huge for a while but I think the cracks were already starting to show. I hate to say it, but White Claw and it’s ilk have been gathering at the gates. I don’t think it will completely go away, but I don’t think everybody is going to survive. As you said, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

As for a Cannonball run - an engineering buddy and I spent 4 hours in the car this past summer on the way back from the Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix bench racing on how to build a car specifically to do the C annonball R un . The answer we arrived at is a lot weirder than you might ex pect. We looked at a bunch of factors that affected run times - average speed, sustained top speeds, stop times, etc. We determined that an easy way to shave time off the record would be to eliminate stops and make them shorter. That lead us down the path of a more fuel efficient vehicle with great aerodynamics so we could make the most speed from the least power, thereby conserving fuel . What we came up with was basically a first gen Honda Insight (one of the lowest drag production vehicles ) , but with the hybrid stuff removed, an L motor swap (170-200 HP turbo 1.5L), a really tall final drive, and the back hatch is a giant gas tank. We surmised the combination should be good for sustained ~160 mph speeds and could do the whole trip on potentially 1 stop.  

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:45

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I... I...I... don't know. How do you do that? I'd fall asleep in my cereal!

TheRealBicycleBuck > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:45

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On the one hand, the roads should be clear, making it easy for a cannonballer to make a run. On the other hand, the roads should be clear and the police aren’t as occupied with other things , making it more difficult to go fast unobserved. My assumption about the police being unoccupied is just that, an assumption.

functionoverfashion > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 08:48

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I’ve been kind of amazed that the customer demand exists to support so many new breweries.

This is what amazes me, and I think to some extent, one answer is “the economy was good so people had money” and whatever contribution that factor made is now pretty much gone.

Interesting take on the Cannonball, and it makes perfect sense to me. Fewer stops is always better even on a regular road trip. They really eat time. This really does have to be historically perfect, and I wonder if people are even already doing it. 

functionoverfashion > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media 03/26/2020 at 08:51

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1. coffee

2. two little kids who need food so they don’t become monsters

functionoverfashion > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 08:55

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Yeah, the police attention thing is an unknown. The other thing is, you’d have to get a network of spotters out and about (I’m pretty sure that’s key to success and *relative* safety) and right now, that’s irresponsible for more reasons than just traffic. I mean, the first couple states you’re in are supposed to be on lockdown already, so... that’s not a good start in one sense. I suspect on the police front, NYC / NJ might be a challenge right off the bat. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 08:59

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I think a number will go out. I think the tiny, low overhead, bring your own food places will survive along with the giant ones that have enough cash . I think the medium sized ones are going to be hit the hardest. High overhead, may rely on a kitchen, larger property to maintain and pay for.

SpecsGTP > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 09:06

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Here’s a fun microbrew game to play: pick up any random microbrew bottle w ithout shaking it, carefully hold it up to the light and see if you can spot any “Christmas trees” growing at the bottom of the bottle.

Microbrewerie s generally use little or no preservatives, nor pasteurization , so the beer will start growing bacteria if not consumed within as little a few months.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 09:09

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I think some have gotten a bit drunk on people not questioning dropping 10-20 for a relatively small amount of beer.

My friend is big into it and there was a good article, the 3 types of craft beer cu stomers.

1) regular, stop in every week. buys @40% of your beer,

2) casual stops in every now and then @20%.

3) huge group of people trying once and never again to knock it off their list. For the last few years #3 has been the most fickle and where some have spent the most on advertising and in a couple ways has screwed up the beer industry the most. I think this group will drop off the charts.

PyramidHat > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 09:15

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What’s the bottom picture, there?

I think a lot of the smaller breweries (and businesses, in general)  will go out, sadly. ..no business = no income.  Especially in the Bay Area where rents are blinding...outside of big corporations, I don’t know of many that have enough cash to coast on for two months...

Snuze: Needs another Swede > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 09:18

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“the economy was good so people had money”

I think that’s a huge part of it. As I said, I love good beer, but in the last year or so I’ve already been cutting back because I balk at some of the prices I see in the store. That and ALL THE DAMN IPAS! I like a good IPA from time to time , but most of the closest beer stores are 90% IPAs, which is annoying, but that’s a personal issue. As someone else pointed out, the smart breweries have been stuffing money under the mattress, and that’s who will ride out the storm.

When we did the Cannonball calcs we based it on the Ed Bolian run . T heir total trip average speed (including stops) on the run was around 98 MPH. I don’t remember all the details but they are in the article linked. We obviously didn’t run all the hard numbers in the car, but just using what we knew and what was available on google, we estimated we could sustain something close to 30 mpg . Depending on the configuration of the car we were shooting for I think 60 gallons , so 1800 miles worth of fuel. That’s 1 stop for 3600 miles of range. We figured conservatively 15 minutes per stop, so we could cut 30 minutes right there all things being equal. If we could bump the average speed even a couple miles per hour, we could reasonably shave over an hour off their time.

Someone recently did it in 27:25, so almost an hour and a half off the previous time.   But we were shooting to break into the 27 hour window. Might still be doable. Funny, my friend just sent me a message as I was writing this - I need to bring it up to him. 

Tripper > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 09:19

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I would say prob yes on the micro brews. I think the good companies that are already well established will stay, but it will be tough to get into that game in the future for the reasons you mentioned. At least that’s my thinking. I will still spend a lot on beer but that is only because I drink very little.

Also fuck yea on #2. I had a cop give me a thumbs up when I got on the empty  highway in the 02 on Monday then he PEACED out in his cruiser. I thought “welp I guess that means I get to see how fast this old car can go because there is no way I’m catching him and there is no one behind me!”

ttyymmnn > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 09:30

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My wife works with a woman whose husband is in the Army and told her about this . After Austin’s lockdown started, the cops pulled over a soldier who was on the road and he had to show his military ID to prove that he was supposed to be out. Our family is volunteering at the Food Bank today, and the bank said that we should bring our paperwork with us in case we get stopped. So, it looks like the cops have plenty to do, and will pull you over even if you’re dog the limit.

functionoverfashion > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 10:27

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I’d say exactly the same on the beer front - 5 years ago, I’d buy fancy Double IPA 4-packs any time I saw one (nearly) because they were “hard to find” or “just released in NH” but I’ve tapered way back.

re: cannonball run. I’m fascinated by the whole thing, in concept. Kinda like base jumping. I think half the fun is in the planning, even like you’re doing, even if you never actually do it. I bet someone does try it in the coming weeks. This is almost the time to go the opposite route of Ed Bolian (trying to blend in with other cars) and just go full-on blackout, try not to be seen. Like I said, for me, it’s mostly fun to think about. 

ranwhenparked > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 10:31

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There's going to be whole segments of the economy that don't turn back on when the restrictions are lifted. Craft beer is one, small liberal arts colleges will be another.

functionoverfashion > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/26/2020 at 10:33

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True, and one other interesting metric is that, while it can FEEL like craft beer is big, especially in a specialty beer store and/or a pub with like, 18 interesting beers on tap, it’s still a drop in the bucket by volume. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but a friend who works for a distributor said over a big summer weekend, they’d deliver something like this:

700 cases of a typical expensive local IPA 4-packs, 16oz cans

500 cases of 12 packs, local or semi-local beers

500 cases of 4 packs of some other local beer

10,000 12 packs of bud light

10,000 12 packs of bud

10,000 18 packs of bud light

10,000 18 packs of bud

10,000 30 packs of bud light

10,000 30 packs of bud

10,000 12 packs of coors light

10,000 18 packs of coors light....

... you get the idea

functionoverfashion > shop-teacher 03/26/2020 at 10:38

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Oh yeah! Thanks, but I guess I don’t have it in me right now. It seems really cool, I just feel like I won’t use it. Again, thanks, and I’m sure someone will snap it up no problem. 

DipodomysDeserti > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 10:40

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A local brewery/distiller has been delivering kegs of hand sanitizer to local hospitals.

Since I still have an income I’ve been trying to buy from all my local restaurants at least once a day. Thanks for reminding me about breweries.

functionoverfashion > Tekamul 03/26/2020 at 10:41

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Alchemist definitely will make it, and boy, I’d love to see some cheaper stuff come out of it. Maine Beer Co looks to be made of money too, but I have no idea if they’re over-extended or stuffing cash away. Their beer is comically expensive though. Again, I’d kill for some cheaper Maine Beer Co offerings. 

functionoverfashion > PyramidHat 03/26/2020 at 10:42

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The bottom pic is people waiting in line outside Alchemist brewery for a release of something. I’ve always  thought that phenomenon was crazy. 

shop-teacher > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 10:47

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No worries. I've had it for years and never touched it, so I definitely understand. 

Snuze: Needs another Swede > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 10:53

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I’m in the same boat on the Cannonball. I don’t think I could ever actually do it because if I were to get caught it would probably end my career (i.e. I’d lose my security clearance, which in turn would end my career ). But it’s certainly fun to think about!

functionoverfashion > ranwhenparked 03/26/2020 at 11:01

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The small college thing will be very interesting. That’s another bubble, the ones that aren’t well-endowed that is. Even those that are, will likely have to change in the short term. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 11:15

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That does seem like a well thought-out plan. I read the last cannonball story and they did as you suggest - they focused on minimizing their pitstop times.

When I was a kid, my grandpa had a GMC truck with a camper shell and a boot to pass from the shell to the cab through the rear window. On trips, g randpa refused to stop for anything. If you had to go, there was an empty coffee can in the back.

After that experience, I never want to pee in a can again.

ranwhenparked > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 11:19

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Lots of them were closing or on the edge already, this will probably finish off the marginal ones. The one in my town was living on a short term rescue package from the state and had just negotiated a takeover with another school when this hit. They go, basically half of downtown goes dark. 

SiennaMan > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 11:41

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A 1st gen Insight is an interesting car.  I started to think about it several months back as a way to get a very efficient commuter car inexpensively that also had a manual transmission..

Snuze: Needs another Swede > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 11:45

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It was an interesting choice of car and they put some thought into it. My plan is basically take their formula and extrapolate it to a more efficient car. The Insight might not be as comfortable as a Benz, b ut I’m less concerned with comfort for 27-ish hours vs. a daily driver . I’ve been through worse.

The camper story is pretty funny! I  think my closest experience was in the Navy - I stood watch in the engine room, and there are no heads back there. If you have to go to the bathroom you need to find someone to relieve your watch station so you can go relieve yourself. Or you quickly learn which funnels drain to the bilge collection tank and use that when nobody is looking! The newer boats have engine room heads, lucky bastards. 

SiennaMan > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 11:47

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Yeah, on the police front my assumption would be that it’s a bad time since the ratio of police to ordinary schmucks on the road is way higher than ever..

Snuze: Needs another Swede > SiennaMan 03/26/2020 at 11:52

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My roommate back in 2005ish had one . It’s a surprisingly zippy little car, I think mainly because it weighs almost nothing.

It’s also an interesting, if surprisingly conventional drivetrain.  T he electric motor bit is  the flywheel for the engine. It’s not super powerful, only about 10-15 HP if I remember correctly. Because of the design it can’t go “all electric ” either. The electric motor is used for acceleration boosts and also some torque smoothing. The incredible fuel efficiency mainly comes from how tiny and aerodynamic it is, and it’s tiny, efficient little engine.

I could be making this up but I seem to recall at one point reading that someone disabled the hybrid system and it only lost a couple MPGs. I have also read that people swap in Ford Explorer Hybrid battery packs because they are similar in size but have double the power density, so you can draw on them longer.

interstate366, now In The Industry > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 12:16

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In many markets, craft beer was getting saturated anyway. Richmond is a good example...here there were at least two dozen craft breweries as of last year. A couple of them have already closed within the past year, and I can imagine at least a few more here will follow suit during this outbreak. There are two within a 5-10 minute drive from me. One is based out of a bike shop, so likely  will be fine regardless, and the other is doing well so far. I plan to hit both of them up when I get paid tomorrow.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 12:22

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I’ve known several Navy guys. The hardships you guys had to deal with living on-ship were ridiculous. You have my respect, sir!

If aerodynamics is the key, then you can do bett er than an Insight. Oddly enough, a Hybrid Sonata is sleeker and gives you more room to take care of business. There are also a couple of Mercedes in this list, but I figured you’d want something a bit more economical.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/nz4zgdp/

functionoverfashion > ranwhenparked 03/26/2020 at 12:23

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True, I know a few years ago a lot of Higher Ed journals were covering these closures and we were all talking about what needs to change to survive. I work for a pretty small state school but the state doesn’t give us much money. I have concerns for the long-term prospects of this campus as it exists today, even if it remains in some capacity or other. Our town is pretty dependent on it, too. 

412GTI > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 12:36

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It’s going to be interesting to see how craft breweries come out of this. I currently work in Marketing at one and luckily we’ve been established since the late 80s and should be able to weather this. Now our recently opened Taproom location..I’m not so sure it will.

It is interesting to see how our very saturated craft beer market responded to this. Most still offering some sort of sales whether being pickup, delivery, or utilizing grocery stores more. I don’t think everyone will make it as the biggest profit is in draft beer and we likely won’t see that allowed her til at least May if I had to predict. 

Snuze: Needs another Swede > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 12:37

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Thank you, but I’m no sir. I was an enlisted man, I worked for a living! I actually still work for the Navy, and still play submarine games, I just don’t wear the uniform anymore. Twice the pay and half the hours, it’s a really good deal!

I didn’t know about the Sonata, that’s good information. I wonder if Hyundai has any engines that similarly balance power and efficiency that would “plug in” to that car.

I did a bit of googling, and the first gen Insight has a 0.25 Cd, so it’s likely just barely off that list . At the point it was released, in 1999, it was the most aerodynamic car out there . Also, total drag is related to both Cd and frontal area. And the Insight is tiny compared to almost all those cars except maybe like the EV1 and XL1, both of which are unobtanium (I also think they should be excluded, especially the XL1). 

My engineering intuition also further questions some of the Cd claims and how they were arrived at. I have a really hard time believe the MBs or the Tesla X and 3 are that slippery. The only plausible answer I could think of is extensive under body air management while the Insight has none(?). I don’t know if that’s true but it’s the only non-obvious thing I can think of, because frankly their shapes don’t look all that efficient to me. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/26/2020 at 12:56

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Looks can be deceiving! But I agree with you that they don’t look too aerodynamic. There might be some improvements you could make (i.e. covering up the rear wheels), but it looks like Hyundai already made a bunch of the common ones in the redesign :

The Sonata Hybrid slips through air with 0.24 drag coefficient. The low drag coefficient is accomplished by managing airflow over and under the body. Up front, the Sonata Hybrid has active air flaps behind the grille, which close when less engine cooling is needed. A redesigned rear spoiler further improves airflow. To reduce drag under the body Hyundai engineers added several elements:

Bumper lip

Front- and rear-wheel deflectors

Undercovers in the front and back of the engine bay

C enter floor undercover

Rear undercover

Snuze: Needs another Swede > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/26/2020 at 13:08

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Absolutely, like I said it was just my engineers intuition, which is definitely prone to being wrong . I’m not a fluids & flow person , so definitely outside my ballpark. But it is amazing that in only 20 years they can make a relatively normal looking car as or slightly more aerodynamic than the Insight, which looks aerodynamic and is clearly pulling out all the stops (teardrop design, wheel covers, etc.)

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 13:21

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What also complicates issues, that t he larger brewerys is odd symbiatic relationship of how much they make off of smaller craft brewers in distribution. Bud will shit on small beer, but they have no problem trucking their product around.. 

feather-throttle-not-hair > functionoverfashion 03/26/2020 at 17:02

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I drove home from the bay area up to Seattle about a week and a half ago. There were lots of cops and not that much traffic. Still took me forever unfortunately, since i had to drive up the coast to avoid weather in the mountains of northern California.